Al Ahli Jeddah 4-2 Al Gharafa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 17 Feb 2025

📅17/02/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.28
Draw
21%
5.71
Away
22%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
3.46
Over 2.5
62%
1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
8.0
2-3 Goals
36%
2.32
4-5 Goals
32%
2.27
6+ Goals
13%
3.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.39
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
20.7
X/1
22%
4.14
X/2
9%
20.95
X/X
10%
10.7
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
17.5
2/2
8%
15.65
2/X
5%
23.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.5 — our 13% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
74%
-17.5pp
21%
Draw
15%
+6.5pp
22%
Away Win
11%
+11.0pp
38%
Under 2.5
25%
+12.3pp
62%
Over 2.5
75%
-12.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.3pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahli Jeddah EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Gharafa EU Bookmakers 14%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
3.47/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.47/2.11
-3% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / -24%
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
424 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 80%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.9
18.5 Crosses 11.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahli Jeddah
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Al Gharafa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
412 Passes 364
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.03.2018 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 1-1 HT 0-0 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa AŞMP
05.03.2018 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-1 HT 0-0 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah AŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ahli Jeddah
4-2
AWAY Al Gharafa
4.22 xG 1.69
59% Ball Possession 41%
25 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
374 Passes 226
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
47 Box Touches 10
15 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Gharafa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahli Jeddah saw off Al Gharafa 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Al Ahli Jeddah as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Al Ahli Jeddah had 59% of the ball to Al Gharafa's 41%, shots finished 25-8, expected goals 4.22 to 1.69.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Al Ahli Jeddah and 1.00 for Al Gharafa.

What was the final score of Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Gharafa?

Al Ahli Jeddah 4-2 Al Gharafa in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 17/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Gharafa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahli Jeddah win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Al Ahli Jeddah 57%, draw 21%, Al Gharafa 22%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahli Jeddah), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahli Jeddah) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AŞMP More AFC Sampiyonlar League
17 Feb 2025
17:00 Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Al Sadd Analysis →
19:00 Al Shorta vs Al Ain Analysis →
19:00 Persepolis vs Al Nassr Analysis →