Pakhtakor Tashkent 2-1 Al Sadd — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 17 Feb 2025

Pakhtakor Tashkent
2-1 HT 1-1
Al Sadd
📅17/02/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
AFC Sampiyonlar League – 2024/2025

Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Al Sadd Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.63
No
44%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.76
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
2.97
6+ Goals
10%
9.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.59
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
18%
4.76
X/2
11%
7.7
X/X
12%
5.24
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.1
2/2
13%
5.45
2/X
8%
13.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.1 — our 8% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-7.1pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.9pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
57%
-1.4pp
44%
BTTS No
43%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pakhtakor Tashkent v Al Sadd — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pakhtakor Tashkent EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Sadd EU Bookmakers 30%
+23% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.13/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.04
+1% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +21%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
270 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
17.9 Crosses 19.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6

Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Al Sadd Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pakhtakor Tashkent
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Al Sadd
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.19 xG 1.18
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
356 Passes 372
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.04.2019 Al Sadd Al Sadd 2-1 HT 1-1 Pakhtakor Tashkent Pakhtakor Tashkent AŞMP
09.04.2019 Pakhtakor Tashkent Pakhtakor Tashkent 2-2 HT 2-2 Al Sadd Al Sadd AŞMP

Pakhtakor Tashkent 2-1 Al Sadd — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pakhtakor Tashkent
2-1
AWAY Al Sadd
2.07 xG 1.08
53% Ball Possession 47%
22 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 4
318 Passes 273
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
40 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Al Sadd
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pakhtakor Tashkent squeezed past Al Sadd 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Pakhtakor Tashkent as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Pakhtakor Tashkent had 53% of the ball to Al Sadd's 47%, shots finished 22-5, expected goals 2.07 to 1.08.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Al Sadd led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Pakhtakor Tashkent and 2.00 for Al Sadd.

What was the final score of Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Al Sadd?

Pakhtakor Tashkent 2-1 Al Sadd in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 17/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Al Sadd?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pakhtakor Tashkent win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Pakhtakor Tashkent 41%, draw 28%, Al Sadd 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pakhtakor Tashkent), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pakhtakor Tashkent) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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