Queretaro 2-4 Monterrey — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 17 Feb 2025

Queretaro
2-4 HT 0-3
Monterrey
📅17/02/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Queretaro vs Monterrey Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.69
Draw
34%
3.45
Away
40%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.36
6+ Goals
11%
12.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 26% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
24%
+2.0pp
34%
Draw
26%
+8.8pp
40%
Away Win
51%
-10.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.7pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Queretaro v Monterrey — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Queretaro EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterrey EU Bookmakers 55%
-2% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.12/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.09
-19% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +8%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
283 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 80%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
19.6 Crosses 19.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5

Queretaro vs Monterrey Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Queretaro
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Monterrey
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.94 xG 1.76
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
279 Passes 448
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
21.07.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 2-1 HT 1-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
25.01.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 1-1 HT 1-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
12.11.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 0-0 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
16.02.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 2-0 HT 2-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
22.07.2022 Queretaro Queretaro 0-3 HT 0-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
09.01.2022 Monterrey Monterrey 0-0 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK

Queretaro 2-4 Monterrey — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Queretaro
2-4
AWAY Monterrey
0.39 xG 2.43
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 3
301 Passes 394
83% Pass Accuracy 88%
12 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Queretaro vs Monterrey
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterrey beat Queretaro 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (26% / 34% / 40%) promised a tight game; Monterrey found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Queretaro had 46% of the ball to Monterrey's 54%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 0.39 to 2.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Queretaro and 1.33 for Monterrey.

What was the final score of Queretaro vs Monterrey?

Queretaro 2-4 Monterrey in the Mexico - Primera on 17/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Queretaro vs Monterrey?

Before kick-off our model rated an Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Queretaro 26%, draw 34%, Monterrey 40%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monterrey), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monterrey) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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