Cardiff City vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction — Model Probabilities
Cardiff City v AFC Wimbledon — Team-Based Signals
Cardiff City vs AFC Wimbledon Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
Cardiff City 4-1 AFC Wimbledon — Actual Match Statistics
Cardiff City ran out comfortable winners over AFC Wimbledon 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Cardiff City as the likeliest winner at 72%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. Nothing to argue with on goals either — over 2.5 goals (57%) came home.
Under the surface, Cardiff City had 61% of the ball to AFC Wimbledon's 39%, shots finished 16-17, expected goals 2.54 to 1.19.
For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Cardiff City had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cardiff City and 1.20 for AFC Wimbledon.
Cardiff City vs AFC Wimbledon Result & Final Score
Cardiff City 4 - 1 AFC Wimbledon in the England - 1st Division on 17/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Cardiff City vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Cardiff City win the most likely single outcome at about 72%, with the full match-result split Cardiff City 72%, draw 18%, AFC Wimbledon 10%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cardiff City), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.