Zalgiris Vilnius 1-3 Hegelmann Litauen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.75
Over 2.5
57%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-7.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+5.7pp
43%
Under 2.5
53%
-10.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
47%
+10.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.5pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Hegelmann Litauen EU Bookmakers 23%
-18% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.47/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.64
-16% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -2%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
371 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Hegelmann Litauen
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.11.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 2-0 HT 1-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
13.08.2023 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 4-0 HT 3-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
07.06.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 0-1 HT 0-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
23.10.2022 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 2-1 HT 1-1 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
28.08.2022 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 1-4 HT 1-3 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
01.07.2022 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 2-1 HT 1-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius
1-3
AWAY Hegelmann Litauen
54% Ball Possession 46%
6 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hegelmann Litauen saw off Zalgiris Vilnius 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Zalgiris Vilnius at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Zalgiris Vilnius had 54% of the ball to Hegelmann Litauen's 46%, shots finished 6-17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zalgiris Vilnius had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Zalgiris Vilnius and 0.83 for Hegelmann Litauen.

What was the final score of Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen?

Zalgiris Vilnius 1-3 Hegelmann Litauen in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zalgiris Vilnius win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Zalgiris Vilnius 47%, draw 27%, Hegelmann Litauen 26%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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