Cruz Azul 1-2 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 17 Mar 2024

Cruz Azul
1-2 HT 1-2
Necaxa
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Cruz Azul vs Necaxa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.18
Over 2.5
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.24
2-3 Goals
41%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
3.0
6+ Goals
10%
9.26
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.24 — our 25% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
67%
-9.6pp
23%
Draw
20%
+2.8pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+6.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.8pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cruz Azul v Necaxa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 16%
-4% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.89/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.75
-12% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +9%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
372 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 75%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
20.7 Crosses 15.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.8

Cruz Azul vs Necaxa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruz Azul
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Necaxa
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.38 xG 0.95
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
306 Passes 263
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
05.10.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-3 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
22.01.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-0 HT 1-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
31.07.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
08.05.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-1 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
13.02.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-2 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
07.08.2021 Necaxa Necaxa 1-2 HT 1-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK

Cruz Azul 1-2 Necaxa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruz Azul
1-2
AWAY Necaxa
1.76 xG 1.54
79% Ball Possession 21%
23 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
14 Corners 1
526 Passes 94
86% Pass Accuracy 57%
46 Box Touches 11
47 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cruz Azul vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa nicked a narrow win over Cruz Azul 2-1 away from home.

This one beat our numbers. Cruz Azul carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Cruz Azul had 79% of the ball to Necaxa's 21%, shots finished 23-9, expected goals 1.76 to 1.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Cruz Azul and 1.00 for Necaxa.

What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Necaxa?

Cruz Azul 1-2 Necaxa in the Mexico - Primera on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 57%, draw 23%, Necaxa 20%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✗ BTTS No
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