Leon 2-1 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 17 Mar 2024

Leon
2-1 HT 1-0
Puebla
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Leon vs Puebla Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.49
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
21%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.43
Over 2.5
51%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.63
No
55%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
5.15
2-3 Goals
40%
1.96
4-5 Goals
24%
2.73
6+ Goals
10%
6.97
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.15 — our 26% vs market 14.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
27%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
62%
-5.2pp
22%
Draw
20%
+1.6pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+3.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
38%
+11.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
62%
-11.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
57%
-11.9pp
55%
BTTS No
43%
+11.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leon v Puebla — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 21%
-4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +11%
1.72/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.96
-2% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +6%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
374 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 76%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
20.7 Crosses 15.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.5

Leon vs Puebla Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Puebla
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.86 xG 1.18
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
291 Passes 236
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
27 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 5
The Meetings
04.11.2023 Puebla Puebla 5-4 HT 1-3 Leon Leon MEK
15.02.2023 Leon Leon 2-0 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
16.07.2022 Puebla Puebla 1-1 HT 1-0 Leon Leon MEK
17.04.2022 Leon Leon 0-1 HT 0-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
29.11.2021 Leon Leon 2-0 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
26.11.2021 Puebla Puebla 2-1 HT 1-1 Leon Leon MEK

Leon 2-1 Puebla — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
2-1
AWAY Puebla
2.58 xG 1.18
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 11
241 Passes 376
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 31
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Leon vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leon nicked a narrow win over Puebla 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Leon as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leon had 40% of the ball to Puebla's 60%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 2.58 to 1.18 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Leon's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Puebla led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Leon and 1.50 for Puebla.

What was the final score of Leon vs Puebla?

Leon 2-1 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leon win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Leon 57%, draw 22%, Puebla 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leon), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Leon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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