Sporting Covilha 2-2 Varzim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.6
Over 2.5
45%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+1.6pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.7pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-0.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.6pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Varzim EU Bookmakers 29%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -25% / -25%
1.95/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.18/1.36
+58% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -83% / -9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
306 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Covilha
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Varzim
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.82 xG 0.97
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
202 Passes 336
65% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Crosses 36
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.04.2022 Varzim Varzim 0-2 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR2
20.12.2021 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-0 HT 1-0 Varzim Varzim POR2
22.02.2021 Varzim Varzim 1-2 HT 0-2 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR2
26.09.2020 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 2-1 HT 0-1 Varzim Varzim POR2
08.12.2019 Varzim Varzim 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR2
28.07.2019 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 0-0 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Covilha
2-2
AWAY Varzim
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sporting Covilha vs Varzim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Covilha and Varzim shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Covilha at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sporting Covilha had 48% of the ball to Varzim's 52%, shots finished 12-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Covilha had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sporting Covilha and 0.50 for Varzim.

What was the final score of Sporting Covilha vs Varzim?

Sporting Covilha 2-2 Varzim in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Covilha vs Varzim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Covilha win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Sporting Covilha 48%, draw 27%, Varzim 25%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Covilha) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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