Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Tuzlaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 17 Mar 2024

Erzurumspor FK
1-0 HT 1-0
Tuzlaspor
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Turkey - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Erzurumspor FK vs Tuzlaspor Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.59
Over 2.5
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.43
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
4.92
6+ Goals
9%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.64
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.9
X/1
11%
4.02
X/2
10%
7.87
X/X
16%
3.94
2/1
9%
29.5
2/2
15%
6.74
2/X
8%
15.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-7.6pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.2pp
29%
Away Win
23%
+6.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.5pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Erzurumspor FK v Tuzlaspor — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzurumspor FK EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Tuzlaspor EU Bookmakers 26%
+12% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
1.39/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.46
+29% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
362 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 75%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
21.8 Crosses 10.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7

Erzurumspor FK vs Tuzlaspor Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzurumspor FK
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Tuzlaspor
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
0.84 xG 1.29
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
293 Passes 287
72% Pass Accuracy 73%
16 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Tuzlaspor 0-1 HT 0-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
04.02.2023 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-2 HT 1-2 Tuzlaspor T1L
03.09.2022 Tuzlaspor 4-1 HT 3-1 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
20.04.2022 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-1 HT 0-1 Tuzlaspor T1L
22.12.2021 Tuzlaspor 1-1 HT 0-1 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L

Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Tuzlaspor — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzurumspor FK
1-0
AWAY Tuzlaspor
1.36 xG 0.11
46% Ball Possession 54%
6 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 0
0 Corners 1
237 Passes 289
66% Pass Accuracy 68%
7 Box Touches 8
11 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Erzurumspor FK vs Tuzlaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzurumspor FK squeezed past Tuzlaspor 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Erzurumspor FK as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Erzurumspor FK had 46% of the ball to Tuzlaspor's 54%, shots finished 6-4, expected goals 1.36 to 0.11 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Erzurumspor FK's control.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Tuzlaspor led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.60 for Tuzlaspor.

What was the final score of Erzurumspor FK vs Tuzlaspor?

Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Tuzlaspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzurumspor FK vs Tuzlaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzurumspor FK win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Erzurumspor FK 41%, draw 29%, Tuzlaspor 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erzurumspor FK), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Erzurumspor FK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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