Virtus Entella 4-0 Sestri Levante — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 17 Mar 2025

📅17/03/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.33
Draw
28%
4.34
Away
19%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.75
Over 2.5
41%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.53
No
59%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.79
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals
18%
3.74
6+ Goals
9%
16.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.79 — our 32% vs market 28.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
71%
-17.5pp
28%
Draw
20%
+8.2pp
19%
Away Win
9%
+9.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
53%
+5.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
47%
-5.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
36%
+5.3pp
59%
BTTS No
64%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Virtus Entella EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Sestri Levante EU Bookmakers 12%
+0% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / -1%
2.07/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.63
+14% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +6%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
412 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Virtus Entella
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Sestri Levante
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 3
03.11.2024 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante 0-0 HT 0-0 Virtus Entella Virtus Entella İTC
21.01.2024 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante 0-0 HT 0-0 Virtus Entella Virtus Entella İTC
16.09.2023 Virtus Entella Virtus Entella 0-1 HT 0-1 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Virtus Entella
4-0
AWAY Sestri Levante
72% Ball Possession 28%
16 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Virtus Entella vs Sestri Levante
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Virtus Entella ran out comfortable winners over Sestri Levante 4-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Virtus Entella as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (59%) landed while under 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, Virtus Entella had 72% of the ball to Sestri Levante's 28%, shots finished 16-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Sestri Levante led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Virtus Entella and 0.33 for Sestri Levante.

What was the final score of Virtus Entella vs Sestri Levante?

Virtus Entella 4-0 Sestri Levante in the Italy - Serie C on 17/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Virtus Entella vs Sestri Levante?

Before kick-off our model rated a Virtus Entella win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Virtus Entella 53%, draw 28%, Sestri Levante 19%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Virtus Entella), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Virtus Entella) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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