Padova Calcio 2-1 Pergolettese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 17 Mar 2025

Padova Calcio
2-1 HT 0-1
Pergolettese
📅17/03/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Italy - Serie C – 2024/2025

Padova Calcio vs Pergolettese Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.71
Over 2.5
37%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.09
No
61%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.67
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
17%
3.91
6+ Goals
9%
18.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.67 — our 35% vs market 29.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
5%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
59%
-8.8pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.0pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+3.8pp
63%
Under 2.5
55%
+8.0pp
37%
Over 2.5
45%
-8.0pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.8pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Padova Calcio v Pergolettese — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Pergolettese EU Bookmakers 20%
+3% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +6%
1.80/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.36
+4% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
388 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3

Padova Calcio vs Pergolettese Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Padova Calcio
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Pergolettese
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.11.2024 Pergolettese Pergolettese 1-2 HT 0-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
28.03.2024 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 2-1 HT 1-1 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
27.11.2023 Pergolettese Pergolettese 1-1 HT 0-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
11.05.2023 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-0 HT 0-0 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
05.02.2023 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 0-3 HT 0-1 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
09.10.2022 Pergolettese Pergolettese 5-0 HT 3-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC

Padova Calcio 2-1 Pergolettese — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Padova Calcio
2-1
AWAY Pergolettese
71% Ball Possession 29%
17 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Padova Calcio vs Pergolettese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Padova Calcio nicked a narrow win over Pergolettese 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Padova Calcio as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Padova Calcio had 71% of the ball to Pergolettese's 29%, shots finished 17-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Padova Calcio had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Padova Calcio and 1.83 for Pergolettese.

What was the final score of Padova Calcio vs Pergolettese?

Padova Calcio 2-1 Pergolettese in the Italy - Serie C on 17/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Padova Calcio vs Pergolettese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Padova Calcio win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Padova Calcio 51%, draw 29%, Pergolettese 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Padova Calcio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Padova Calcio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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