Padova Calcio 2-1 Pergolettese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 28 Mar 2024

Padova Calcio
2-1 HT 1-1
Pergolettese
📅28/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie C – 2023/2024

Padova Calcio vs Pergolettese Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.47
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
24%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.75
Over 2.5
42%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.19
No
53%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.01
6+ Goals
9%
18.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.91 — our 31% vs market 28.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
22%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
64%
-14.6pp
27%
Draw
22%
+5.0pp
24%
Away Win
14%
+9.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
53%
+5.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
47%
-5.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.4pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Padova Calcio v Pergolettese — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Pergolettese EU Bookmakers 17%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +14%
1.70/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.38
-1% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
404 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3

Padova Calcio vs Pergolettese Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Padova Calcio
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Pergolettese
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
27.11.2023 Pergolettese Pergolettese 1-1 HT 0-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
11.05.2023 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-0 HT 0-0 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
05.02.2023 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 0-3 HT 0-1 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
09.10.2022 Pergolettese Pergolettese 5-0 HT 3-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
01.02.2022 Pergolettese Pergolettese 0-1 HT 0-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
04.09.2021 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 2-1 HT 0-0 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC

Padova Calcio 2-1 Pergolettese — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Padova Calcio
2-1
AWAY Pergolettese
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Padova Calcio vs Pergolettese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Padova Calcio nicked a narrow win over Pergolettese 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Padova Calcio as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Padova Calcio had 51% of the ball to Pergolettese's 49%, shots finished 12-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Padova Calcio had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Padova Calcio and 1.67 for Pergolettese.

What was the final score of Padova Calcio vs Pergolettese?

Padova Calcio 2-1 Pergolettese in the Italy - Serie C on 28/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Padova Calcio vs Pergolettese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Padova Calcio win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Padova Calcio 49%, draw 27%, Pergolettese 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Padova Calcio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Padova Calcio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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