Catania 2-3 SSC Giugliano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 28 Mar 2024

📅28/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.95
No
48%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.05
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.82
6+ Goals
11%
16.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 28% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
57%
-9.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.3pp
26%
Away Win
19%
+6.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.5pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Catania EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY SSC Giugliano EU Bookmakers 22%
+0% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -6%
1.25/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.48
-21% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
321 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Catania
1W-0D-0L
AWAY SSC Giugliano
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.11.2023 SSC Giugliano SSC Giugliano 0-1 HT 0-0 Catania Catania İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Catania
2-3
AWAY SSC Giugliano
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Catania vs SSC Giugliano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SSC Giugliano edged past Catania 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Catania at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Catania had 43% of the ball to SSC Giugliano's 57%, shots finished 9-12.

What was the final score of Catania vs SSC Giugliano?

Catania 2-3 SSC Giugliano in the Italy - Serie C on 28/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Catania vs SSC Giugliano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Catania win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Catania 48%, draw 26%, SSC Giugliano 26%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Catania), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Catania) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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