Pachuca 4-1 Tijuana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 17 Mar 2025

📅17/03/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.33
Draw
19%
4.95
Away
19%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.96
Over 2.5
54%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.61
No
53%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
6.62
2-3 Goals
37%
2.13
4-5 Goals
26%
2.35
6+ Goals
12%
4.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
26%
X/2
7%
X/X
5%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
70%
-8.6pp
19%
Draw
17%
+2.4pp
19%
Away Win
13%
+6.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
30%
+15.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
70%
-15.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.4pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pachuca EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Tijuana EU Bookmakers 16%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -5%
1.84/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/2.25
-8% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -13%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
363 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 77%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
21.8 Crosses 13.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pachuca
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Tijuana
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.85 xG 1.57
55% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
321 Passes 254
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
05.10.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 2-1 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
04.02.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 3-2 HT 2-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
11.11.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 2-3 HT 1-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
27.02.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 2-0 HT 2-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
12.09.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 6-1 HT 2-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
12.04.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 0-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pachuca
4-1
AWAY Tijuana
2.51 xG 0.08
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
371 Passes 251
87% Pass Accuracy 75%
30 Box Touches 5
19 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pachuca vs Tijuana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca cruised past Tijuana 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Pachuca as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Pachuca had 56% of the ball to Tijuana's 44%, shots finished 20-5, expected goals 2.51 to 0.08.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Pachuca and 1.50 for Tijuana.

What was the final score of Pachuca vs Tijuana?

Pachuca 4-1 Tijuana in the Mexico - Primera on 17/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pachuca vs Tijuana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Pachuca 62%, draw 19%, Tijuana 19%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pachuca), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pachuca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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