Pumas UNAM 1-3 Monterrey — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 17 Mar 2025

📅17/03/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
40%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.71
Over 2.5
48%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.71
2-3 Goals
38%
1.72
4-5 Goals
22%
3.86
6+ Goals
10%
17.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.0pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.7pp
40%
Away Win
37%
+2.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
55%
-2.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
45%
+2.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.2pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterrey EU Bookmakers 40%
-4% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +13%
1.41/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.15
-4% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
285 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 79%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
17.9 Crosses 17.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pumas UNAM
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Monterrey
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.98 xG 1.49
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
292 Passes 404
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
01.12.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 3-5 HT 1-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
29.11.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 1-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
24.10.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 0-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
04.08.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 1-1 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM CONLK
04.03.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 3-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
22.10.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-1 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pumas UNAM
1-3
AWAY Monterrey
1.43 xG 2.64
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
377 Passes 350
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pumas UNAM vs Monterrey
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterrey got the better of Pumas UNAM 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 26% / 40% — and on the day Monterrey made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Pumas UNAM had 51% of the ball to Monterrey's 49%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.43 to 2.64.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.83 for Monterrey.

What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Monterrey?

Pumas UNAM 1-3 Monterrey in the Mexico - Primera on 17/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Monterrey?

Before kick-off our model rated an Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 34%, draw 26%, Monterrey 40%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monterrey) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monterrey) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
17 Mar 2025
05:00 Pachuca vs Tijuana Analysis →