Pumas UNAM 3-5 Monterrey — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 1 Dec 2024

📅01/12/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.01
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.97
6+ Goals
9%
17.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.53
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.5
X/1
16%
4.16
X/2
7%
8.14
X/X
11%
4.59
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
13%
6.47
2/X
6%
15.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
50%
-1.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.8pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterrey EU Bookmakers 27%
+13% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +7%
1.68/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.32
+46% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
309 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 76%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
19.7 Crosses 16.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pumas UNAM
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Monterrey
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.71 xG 1.74
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
292 Passes 437
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
29.11.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 1-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
24.10.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 0-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
04.08.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 1-1 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM CONLK
04.03.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 3-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
22.10.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-1 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
30.04.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 4-1 HT 4-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pumas UNAM
3-5
AWAY Monterrey
2.68 xG 1.64
62% Ball Possession 38%
21 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
379 Passes 205
83% Pass Accuracy 71%
40 Box Touches 8
40 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pumas UNAM vs Monterrey
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterrey saw off Pumas UNAM 5-3 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Pumas UNAM at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Pumas UNAM had 62% of the ball to Monterrey's 38%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 2.68 to 1.64 — the balance of chances actually favoured Pumas UNAM.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.67 for Monterrey.

What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Monterrey?

Pumas UNAM 3-5 Monterrey in the Mexico - Primera on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Monterrey?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 49%, draw 25%, Monterrey 26%. The final score 3-5 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pumas UNAM) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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