Toluca vs Club America Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca v Club America — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Club America Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-1
Club America
MEK
2-2
HT 2-1
Club America
MEK
1-1
HT 1-1
Toluca
MEK
Toluca 0-2 Club America — Actual Match Statistics
Club America got the better of Toluca 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Toluca at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Toluca had 65% of the ball to Club America's 35%, shots finished 21-7, expected goals 1.48 to 1.18.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Club America led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Toluca and 1.83 for Club America.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Club America?
Toluca 0-2 Club America in the Mexico - Primera on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Club America?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Toluca 46%, draw 25%, Club America 29%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.