Toluca 0-2 Club America — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 1 Dec 2024

📅01/12/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.76
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.31
6+ Goals
10%
11.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 25% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.09
1/2
8%
31.5
1/X
5%
12.85
X/1
21%
5.07
X/2
10%
6.61
X/X
12%
4.88
2/1
6%
25.0
2/2
11%
4.49
2/X
8%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
43%
+2.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-1.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.1pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toluca EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Club America EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +9%
1.59/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.01
+21% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +20%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
336 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 78%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
17.0 Crosses 15.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toluca
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Club America
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.17 xG 2.14
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
396 Passes 380
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.11.2024 Club America Club America 2-0 HT 0-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
10.11.2024 Toluca Toluca 4-0 HT 1-0 Club America Club America MEK
14.04.2024 Club America Club America 5-1 HT 3-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
24.09.2023 Toluca Toluca 1-1 HT 0-1 Club America Club America MEK
15.01.2023 Toluca Toluca 2-2 HT 2-1 Club America Club America MEK
23.10.2022 Club America Club America 1-1 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toluca
0-2
AWAY Club America
1.48 xG 1.18
65% Ball Possession 35%
21 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
433 Passes 217
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
35 Box Touches 8
27 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Toluca vs Club America
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Club America got the better of Toluca 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Toluca at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Toluca had 65% of the ball to Club America's 35%, shots finished 21-7, expected goals 1.48 to 1.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Club America led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Toluca and 1.83 for Club America.

What was the final score of Toluca vs Club America?

Toluca 0-2 Club America in the Mexico - Primera on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toluca vs Club America?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Toluca 46%, draw 25%, Club America 29%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Toluca) ✗ BTTS Yes
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