Novi Pazar 3-1 Zeleznicar Pancevo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 17 Mar 2025

📅17/03/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
32%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.59
Over 2.5
46%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.03
No
50%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
17%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
47%
-6.3pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.0pp
32%
Away Win
24%
+7.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
45%
+5.2pp
50%
BTTS No
55%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novi Pazar EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Zeleznicar Pancevo EU Bookmakers 28%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +14%
1.43/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.42
-4% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
306 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 69%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
20.1 Crosses 18.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novi Pazar
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Zeleznicar Pancevo
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.00 xG 1.19
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
265 Passes 323
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 20
8 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2024 Zeleznicar Pancevo Zeleznicar Pancevo 0-1 HT 0-1 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
18.05.2024 Zeleznicar Pancevo Zeleznicar Pancevo 3-1 HT 1-1 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
10.02.2024 Zeleznicar Pancevo Zeleznicar Pancevo 2-2 HT 2-1 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
01.11.2023 Zeleznicar Pancevo Zeleznicar Pancevo 0-1 HT 0-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRBK
27.08.2023 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 1-0 HT 1-0 Zeleznicar Pancevo Zeleznicar Pancevo SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novi Pazar
3-1
AWAY Zeleznicar Pancevo
1.98 xG 0.62
59% Ball Possession 41%
22 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
485 Passes 311
89% Pass Accuracy 83%
41 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Novi Pazar vs Zeleznicar Pancevo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novi Pazar saw off Zeleznicar Pancevo 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Novi Pazar as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Novi Pazar had 59% of the ball to Zeleznicar Pancevo's 41%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 1.98 to 0.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Novi Pazar had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Novi Pazar and 1.00 for Zeleznicar Pancevo.

What was the final score of Novi Pazar vs Zeleznicar Pancevo?

Novi Pazar 3-1 Zeleznicar Pancevo in the Serbia - Super League on 17/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novi Pazar vs Zeleznicar Pancevo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novi Pazar win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Novi Pazar 41%, draw 27%, Zeleznicar Pancevo 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Novi Pazar) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Novi Pazar) ✗ Under 2.5
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