Mamelodi Sundowns 3-1 Marumo Gallants — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Premier League, 17 Mar 2026

📅17/03/2026 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
79%
1.25
Draw
13%
5.15
Away
8%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
1.91
Over
59%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.67
No
58%
1.41
Total Goals
0-1
25%
3.21
2-3
38%
1.73
4-5
25%
3.28
6+
12%
12.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
48%
1/2
3%
1/X
3%
X/1
20%
X/2
2%
X/X
7%
2/1
11%
2/2
3%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Mamelodi Sundowns win — 79%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
79%
Home Win
76%
+3.2pp
13%
Draw
17%
-3.6pp
7%
Away Win
7%
+0.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
48%
-7.2pp
59%
Over 2.5
52%
+7.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
33%
+8.5pp
58%
BTTS No
67%
-8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns The Market 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Marumo Gallants The Market 9%
+5% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +6%
1.62/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.70
+53% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -35%
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
435 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 75%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
12.8 Crosses 13.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Marumo Gallants
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.57 xG 1.05
65% Ball Possession 34%
14 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
521 Passes 232
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 13
16 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.10.2025 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 0-0 HT 0-0 Marumo Gallants Marumo Gallants GAFLK
17.09.2025 Marumo Gallants Marumo Gallants 1-1 HT 1-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
19.02.2025 Marumo Gallants Marumo Gallants 1-3 HT 1-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
10.11.2024 Marumo Gallants Marumo Gallants 0-2 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFLK
24.09.2024 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 4-1 HT 2-0 Marumo Gallants Marumo Gallants GAFPSL
06.05.2023 Marumo Gallants Marumo Gallants 0-2 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
3-1
AWAY Marumo Gallants
2.55 xG 1.90
75% Ball Possession 25%
18 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 5
504 Passes 128
89% Pass Accuracy 69%
22 Box Touches 11
23 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mamelodi Sundowns vs Marumo Gallants
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Marumo Gallants 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Mamelodi Sundowns as the likeliest winner at 79%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Mamelodi Sundowns had 75% of the ball to Marumo Gallants's 25%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 2.55 to 1.90.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mamelodi Sundowns had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.50 for Marumo Gallants.

What was the final score of Mamelodi Sundowns vs Marumo Gallants?

Mamelodi Sundowns 3-1 Marumo Gallants in the South Afrika - Premier League on 17/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Marumo Gallants?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 79%, with the full match-result split Mamelodi Sundowns 79%, draw 13%, Marumo Gallants 7%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →