Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 Katowice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 17 Mar 2026

📅17/03/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.75
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.15
Over 2.5
56%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.63
No
41%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.94
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
2.86
6+ Goals
14%
8.68
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.27
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
19%
4.48
X/2
8%
8.81
X/X
8%
5.51
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
21.15
2/2
13%
6.43
2/X
6%
14.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.15 — our 7% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
53%
+0.2pp
20%
Draw
24%
-3.7pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+3.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
43%
+0.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
57%
-0.8pp
59%
BTTS Yes
57%
+1.8pp
41%
BTTS No
43%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Katowice EU Bookmakers 26%
-7% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +19%
1.78/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.52
+14% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +21%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
341 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 76%
32.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
21.1 Crosses 17.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Katowice
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.48 xG 0.94
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
433 Passes 266
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
34 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.12.2025 Katowice Katowice 3-1 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POLK
02.03.2025 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-0 HT 1-0 Katowice Katowice POL
25.08.2024 Katowice Katowice 3-1 HT 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
31.10.2018 Katowice Katowice 0-0 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
2-1
AWAY Katowice
1.51 xG 0.70
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
368 Passes 352
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
34 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 19
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Katowice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok nicked a narrow win over Katowice 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Jagiellonia Bialystok as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 51% of the ball to Katowice's 49%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 1.51 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Katowice led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 1.50 for Katowice.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Katowice?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 Katowice in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 17/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Katowice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 53%, draw 20%, Katowice 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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