Katowice 3-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Cup, 4 Dec 2025

📅04/12/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
42%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.97
Over 2.5
55%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.63
No
40%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.52
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
26%
3.18
6+ Goals
13%
11.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.18 — our 26% vs market 25.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+0.5pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+0.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
47%
-2.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
53%
+2.2pp
60%
BTTS Yes
57%
+2.4pp
40%
BTTS No
43%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Katowice EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 45%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
0.41/0.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.24
-70% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +15%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
253 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 413 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Katowice
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.94 xG 1.48
37% Ball Possession 63%
14 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
266 Passes 433
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 34
20 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 0
02.03.2025 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-0 HT 1-0 Katowice Katowice POL
25.08.2024 Katowice Katowice 3-1 HT 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
31.10.2018 Katowice Katowice 0-0 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Katowice
3-1
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 21
5 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 8
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Katowice vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Katowice saw off Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Jagiellonia Bialystok at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, Katowice had 43% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 57%, shots finished 7-21.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Katowice and 0.67 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Katowice vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Katowice 3-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Cup on 04/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Katowice vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated an Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Katowice 33%, draw 25%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 42%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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