Louisville City 3-1 Greenville Triumph — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 17 Apr 2024

📅17/04/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.57
Draw
20%
3.94
Away
27%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.18
Over 2.5
56%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
24%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
59%
-6.4pp
20%
Draw
22%
-2.2pp
27%
Away Win
19%
+8.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
42%
+1.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
58%
-1.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.2pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Louisville City EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Greenville Triumph EU Bookmakers 22%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+150% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
378 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Louisville City
3-1
AWAY Greenville Triumph
3.13 xG 0.78
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
372 Passes 332
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Louisville City vs Greenville Triumph
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City saw off Greenville Triumph 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Louisville City had 52% of the ball to Greenville Triumph's 48%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 3.13 to 0.78.

What was the final score of Louisville City vs Greenville Triumph?

Louisville City 3-1 Greenville Triumph in the USA - Open Cup on 17/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Louisville City vs Greenville Triumph?

Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 53%, draw 20%, Greenville Triumph 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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