Fiorentina 2-2 Celje — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 17 Apr 2025

📅17/04/2025 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
63%
1.42
Draw
18%
4.49
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under
39%
2.38
Over
61%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1
18%
4.94
2-3
41%
1.96
4-5
25%
2.71
6+
16%
6.9
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.94 — our 18% vs market 15.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.66
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
4%
17.25
X/1
22%
4.07
X/2
9%
14.95
X/X
10%
7.35
2/1
12%
20.35
2/2
4%
11.85
2/X
4%
19.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Fiorentina win — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
66%
-3.0pp
18%
Draw
19%
-1.2pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+4.2pp
39%
Under 2.5
38%
+1.3pp
61%
Over 2.5
62%
-1.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.4pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Celje EU Bookmakers 17%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
2.11/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.88/1.25
+17% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +92% / -21%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
386 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 79%
34.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.3
24.7 Crosses 16.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorentina
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Celje
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.03 xG 1.48
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 4
320 Passes 369
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 25
8 Crosses 19
5 Yellow Cards 1
10.04.2025 Celje Celje 1-2 HT 0-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina AVKL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina
2-2
AWAY Celje
1.39 xG 0.86
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
242 Passes 465
83% Pass Accuracy 89%
25 Box Touches 13
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fiorentina vs Celje
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina and Celje shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Fiorentina carried 63% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Fiorentina had 37% of the ball to Celje's 63%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.39 to 0.86.

What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Celje?

Fiorentina 2-2 Celje in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 17/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Celje?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 63%, draw 18%, Celje 19%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Fiorentina), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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