17/04/2025
·
22:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-0
2nd Score
1-0
Lazio vs Bodo / Glimt Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.51
— our 22% vs market 17.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Lazio win — 60% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Home Win
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
64%
20%
Draw
20%
20%
Away Win
16%
41%
Under 2.5
40%
59%
Over 2.5
60%
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
47%
BTTS No
47%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lazio v Bodo / Glimt — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Lazio
EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY
Bodo / Glimt
EU Bookmakers 19%
-2% /
-2%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+7% /
+7%
1.16/0.81
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.82/2.13
-31%
/
-17%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+19%
/
+44%
54%
Ball Possession
46%
16
Total Shots
8
6
Shots on Target
3
6
Corners
3
395 · 82%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
314 · 77%
24.7
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.2
19.6
Crosses
5.0
2.1
Yellow Cards
2.5
Lazio vs Bodo / Glimt Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Lazio
0W-0D-1L
AWAY
Bodo / Glimt
0.00
Avg Goals (FT)
2.00
0.49
xG
3.02
42%
Ball Possession
58%
6
Total Shots
18
1
Shots on Target
6
4
Corners
1
359
Passes
558
81%
Pass Accuracy
89%
14
Box Touches
48
10
Crosses
6
3
Yellow Cards
0
The Meetings
Lazio 3-1 Bodo / Glimt — Actual Match Statistics
RESULT
Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME
Lazio
3-1
AWAY
Bodo / Glimt
3.91
xG
1.52
53%
Ball Possession
47%
33
Total Shots
12
11
Shots on Target
8
15
Corners
3
469
Passes
403
85%
Pass Accuracy
79%
82
Box Touches
25
50
Crosses
9
3
Yellow Cards
5
POST-MATCH
Lazio vs Bodo / Glimt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Lazio beat Bodo / Glimt 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lazio as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Lazio had 53% of the ball to Bodo / Glimt's 47%, shots finished 33-12, expected goals 3.91 to 1.52.
What was the final score of Lazio vs Bodo / Glimt?
Lazio 3-1 Bodo / Glimt in the UEFA Europa League on 17/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lazio vs Bodo / Glimt?
Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Lazio 61%, draw 20%, Bodo / Glimt 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lazio), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Lazio)
✓ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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17 Apr 2025