Flamengo 4-1 Independiente Medellin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 17 Apr 2026

📅17/04/2026 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
77%
1.22
Draw
14%
5.71
Away
9%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
2.29
Over
59%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.16
No
49%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1
22%
2-3
42%
4-5
27%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1/2
3%
1/X
3%
X/1
25%
X/2
3%
X/X
5%
2/1
10%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Flamengo win — 77%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
77%
Home Win
77%
-0.7pp
14%
Draw
14%
-0.3pp
9%
Away Win
8%
+0.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
40%
+1.5pp
59%
Over 2.5
60%
-1.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
42%
+8.9pp
49%
BTTS No
58%
-8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Flamengo The Market 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Medellin The Market 11%
-2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
2.08/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/1.48
-1% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +92% / -8%
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
438 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 73%
33.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 5.4
22.8 Crosses 12.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Flamengo
4-1
AWAY Independiente Medellin
2.97 xG 0.29
59% Ball Possession 41%
24 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
511 Passes 329
91% Pass Accuracy 85%
39 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo swept aside Independiente Medellin 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Flamengo as the likeliest winner at 77%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Flamengo had 59% of the ball to Independiente Medellin's 41%, shots finished 24-8, expected goals 2.97 to 0.29.

What was the final score of Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin?

Flamengo 4-1 Independiente Medellin in the Copa Libertadores on 17/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 77%, with the full match-result split Flamengo 77%, draw 14%, Independiente Medellin 9%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Flamengo), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Flamengo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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