Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Palmeiras v Sporting Cristal — Team-Based Signals
Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
Palmeiras 2-1 Sporting Cristal — Actual Match Statistics
Palmeiras nicked a narrow win over Sporting Cristal 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 76%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Palmeiras had 65% of the ball to Sporting Cristal's 35%, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 2.37 to 0.71 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Palmeiras's control.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.75 goals for Palmeiras and 1.00 for Sporting Cristal.
What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal?
Palmeiras 2-1 Sporting Cristal in the Copa Libertadores on 17/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal?
Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 76%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 76%, draw 16%, Sporting Cristal 8%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.