Changchun YaTai 3-2 Beijing Guoan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 17 May 2024

📅17/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.46
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
49%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.92
2-3 Goals
43%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.16
6+ Goals
9%
10.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.92 — our 27% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.57
1/2
9%
23.15
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
7%
7.93
X/2
14%
4.54
X/X
12%
5.04
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
27%
2.54
2/X
7%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
26%
-0.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
49%
Away Win
49%
+0.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.9pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Changchun YaTai EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Beijing Guoan EU Bookmakers 53%
-4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +16%
1.25/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.31
-25% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +15%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
299 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 81%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
16.7 Crosses 17.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Changchun YaTai
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Beijing Guoan
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.99 xG 2.12
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 10
241 Passes 406
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 34
12 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.09.2023 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 1-1 HT 1-1 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
02.06.2023 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 4-3 HT 2-1 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
15.12.2022 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 3-0 HT 1-0 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
24.10.2022 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 0-1 HT 0-1 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
12.08.2021 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 2-1 HT 0-0 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
22.07.2021 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 2-0 HT 1-0 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Changchun YaTai
3-2
AWAY Beijing Guoan
2.07 xG 1.21
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
299 Passes 353
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Changchun YaTai vs Beijing Guoan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Changchun YaTai squeezed past Beijing Guoan 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Beijing Guoan at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Changchun YaTai had 47% of the ball to Beijing Guoan's 53%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 2.07 to 1.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Beijing Guoan led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Changchun YaTai and 1.83 for Beijing Guoan.

What was the final score of Changchun YaTai vs Beijing Guoan?

Changchun YaTai 3-2 Beijing Guoan in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 17/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Changchun YaTai vs Beijing Guoan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Beijing Guoan win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Changchun YaTai 25%, draw 26%, Beijing Guoan 49%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Beijing Guoan), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Beijing Guoan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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