First Vienna 4-2 Kapfenberger SV — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - 1st Division, 17 May 2024

📅17/05/2024 · 🕒19:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.29
Over 2.5
58%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.72
2-3 Goals
36%
1.92
4-5 Goals
27%
2.84
6+ Goals
13%
7.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.26
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.8
X/1
15%
4.35
X/2
9%
8.75
X/X
7%
5.88
2/1
7%
20.8
2/2
14%
5.95
2/X
9%
14.2
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 7% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-4.7pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.9pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
40%
+2.3pp
58%
Over 2.5
60%
-2.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.9pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME First Vienna EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Kapfenberger SV EU Bookmakers 27%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +32%
1.64/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.42
-12% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
321 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 230 · 66%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
Crosses 14.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME First Vienna
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Kapfenberger SV
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 4
04.11.2023 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 0-0 HT 0-0 First Vienna First Vienna AU2
21.04.2023 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 3-0 HT 0-0 First Vienna First Vienna AU2
30.09.2022 First Vienna First Vienna 1-0 HT 0-0 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
18.07.2021 First Vienna First Vienna 3-5 HT 0-2 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AUK
02.05.2014 First Vienna First Vienna 3-2 HT 0-1 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
21.03.2014 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 3-1 HT 1-0 First Vienna First Vienna AU2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME First Vienna
4-2
AWAY Kapfenberger SV
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH First Vienna vs Kapfenberger SV
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

First Vienna saw off Kapfenberger SV 4-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had First Vienna as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, First Vienna had 62% of the ball to Kapfenberger SV's 38%, shots finished 17-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kapfenberger SV led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for First Vienna and 2.17 for Kapfenberger SV.

What was the final score of First Vienna vs Kapfenberger SV?

First Vienna 4-2 Kapfenberger SV in the Austria - 1st Division on 17/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for First Vienna vs Kapfenberger SV?

Before kick-off our model rated a First Vienna win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split First Vienna 48%, draw 23%, Kapfenberger SV 29%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (First Vienna), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (First Vienna) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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