17/05/2024
·
19:10
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
3-1
2nd Score
4-1
Ried vs Sturm Graz II Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Half Time / Full Time
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
70%
Home Win
78%
15%
Draw
13%
14%
Away Win
9%
35%
Under 2.5
22%
65%
Over 2.5
78%
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
45%
BTTS No
42%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Ried v Sturm Graz II — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Ried
EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY
Sturm Graz II
EU Bookmakers 12%
-3% /
+2%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-7% /
-7%
3.33/0.49
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.71/2.06
+44%
/
+61%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-17%
/
+5%
61%
Ball Possession
39%
18
Total Shots
8
8
Shots on Target
2
7
Corners
3
455 · 83%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
272 · 74%
21.5
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
21.5
Crosses
–
1.3
Yellow Cards
3.5
Ried vs Sturm Graz II Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Ried
1W-0D-0L
AWAY
Sturm Graz II
5.00
Avg Goals (FT)
0.00
61%
Ball Possession
39%
13
Total Shots
6
7
Shots on Target
2
2
Corners
2
1
Yellow Cards
1
The Meetings
06.12.2023
Sturm Graz II
0-5
HT 0-1
Ried
AU2
0-5
HT 0-1
Ried
AU2
POST-MATCH
Ried vs Sturm Graz II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Ried edged past Sturm Graz II 1-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ried as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Ried vs Sturm Graz II?
Ried 1-0 Sturm Graz II in the Austria - 1st Division on 17/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Ried vs Sturm Graz II?
Before kick-off our model rated a Ried win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Ried 70%, draw 15%, Sturm Graz II 14%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ried) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Ried)
✗ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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AU2
More Austria - 1st Division
17 May 2024