Aalborg 1-0 FC Fredericia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 17 May 2024

📅17/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.47
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
32%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.96
Over 2.5
55%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.5
No
48%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
6.73
2-3 Goals
33%
2.15
4-5 Goals
30%
2.49
6+ Goals
12%
5.04
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1.78
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.5
X/1
16%
4.02
X/2
9%
12.5
X/X
10%
7.8
2/1
7%
18.35
2/2
18%
8.04
2/X
7%
16.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
64%
-19.1pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.2pp
32%
Away Win
17%
+14.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
30%
+14.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
70%
-14.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
62%
-10.8pp
48%
BTTS No
38%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aalborg EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Fredericia EU Bookmakers 21%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.70/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.89
+7% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
361 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 75%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
21.0 Crosses 11.8
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aalborg
2W-0D-3L
AWAY FC Fredericia
2.20 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.09 xG 0.92
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
403 Passes 407
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
37 Box Touches 24
31 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.04.2024 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia 2-1 HT 2-0 Aalborg Aalborg DAN1
01.03.2024 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia 2-3 HT 1-2 Aalborg Aalborg DAN1
26.09.2023 Aalborg Aalborg 2-3 HT 0-1 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia DAK
06.08.2023 Aalborg Aalborg 4-0 HT 1-0 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia DAN1
11.04.2018 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia 3-1 HT 3-0 Aalborg Aalborg DAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aalborg
1-0
AWAY FC Fredericia
1.13 xG 0.76
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 5
351 Passes 569
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
24 Box Touches 25
6 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aalborg vs FC Fredericia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aalborg squeezed past FC Fredericia 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Aalborg as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aalborg had 39% of the ball to FC Fredericia's 61%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.13 to 0.76.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, FC Fredericia led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.20 goals for Aalborg and 2.00 for FC Fredericia.

What was the final score of Aalborg vs FC Fredericia?

Aalborg 1-0 FC Fredericia in the Denmark 1st Division on 17/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aalborg vs FC Fredericia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aalborg win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Aalborg 44%, draw 23%, FC Fredericia 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aalborg) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aalborg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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