Kashima Antlers 1-0 Shimizu S-Pulse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
35%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.58
6+ Goals
10%
14.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 28% vs market 25.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.12
1/2
8%
28.5
1/X
8%
12.65
X/1
10%
6.12
X/2
14%
5.69
X/X
14%
4.43
2/1
12%
30.5
2/2
13%
3.67
2/X
6%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
35%
+2.9pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.5pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-1.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.1pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 40%
-1% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +0%
1.09/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.23
+12% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +0%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
296 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 78%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
19.4 Crosses 17.4
1.1 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashima Antlers
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.81 xG 0.94
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
360 Passes 302
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 2
29.10.2022 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 0-1 HT 0-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
02.04.2022 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 2-1 HT 0-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
25.08.2021 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 0-4 HT 0-2 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
06.06.2021 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 2-1 HT 1-1 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JLK
02.06.2021 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 0-1 HT 0-1 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JLK
27.02.2021 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 1-3 HT 0-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashima Antlers
1-0
AWAY Shimizu S-Pulse
0.72 xG 1.61
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 0
1 Corners 4
348 Passes 448
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 32
7 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kashima Antlers vs Shimizu S-Pulse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashima Antlers edged past Shimizu S-Pulse 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 35% — and on the day Kashima Antlers made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Kashima Antlers had 45% of the ball to Shimizu S-Pulse's 55%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 0.72 to 1.61 — the balance of chances actually favoured Shimizu S-Pulse.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kashima Antlers had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Kashima Antlers and 0.83 for Shimizu S-Pulse.

What was the final score of Kashima Antlers vs Shimizu S-Pulse?

Kashima Antlers 1-0 Shimizu S-Pulse in the Japan - J1 League on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashima Antlers vs Shimizu S-Pulse?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashima Antlers win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Kashima Antlers 38%, draw 27%, Shimizu S-Pulse 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kashima Antlers), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kashima Antlers) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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