Avispa Fukuoka 1-1 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒08:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
31%
2.83
Away
32%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.36
Over 2.5
35%
2.98
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.44
No
62%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
1.8
2-3 Goals
37%
1.9
4-5 Goals
16%
7.68
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.63
1/2
9%
35.0
1/X
6%
16.7
X/1
15%
5.32
X/2
12%
5.09
X/X
19%
3.2
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
10%
4.32
2/X
7%
16.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.4pp
31%
Draw
32%
-0.3pp
31%
Away Win
34%
-3.0pp
65%
Under 2.5
70%
-4.7pp
35%
Over 2.5
30%
+4.7pp
38%
BTTS Yes
37%
+1.0pp
62%
BTTS No
63%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 38%
+4% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -20%
0.91/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.24
-30% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -5%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
272 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 79%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
17.4 Crosses 16.7
1.4 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.89 xG 1.18
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
281 Passes 334
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
04.10.2024 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
07.04.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-0 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
15.10.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-1 HT 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JLK
11.10.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JLK
16.09.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
11.06.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
1-1
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
0.37 xG 0.96
50% Ball Possession 50%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
301 Passes 292
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
14 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Avispa Fukuoka vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avispa Fukuoka and Nagoya Grampus couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 31% / 31%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (65%) landed while no to both teams scoring (62%) missed.

On the day, Avispa Fukuoka had 50% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 50%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 0.37 to 0.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avispa Fukuoka had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Avispa Fukuoka and 0.33 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of Avispa Fukuoka vs Nagoya Grampus?

Avispa Fukuoka 1-1 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avispa Fukuoka vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avispa Fukuoka win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Avispa Fukuoka 37%, draw 31%, Nagoya Grampus 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Avispa Fukuoka), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Avispa Fukuoka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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