Vissel Kobe 3-2 Gamba Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-5.4pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.8pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.8pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vissel Kobe EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 28%
-2% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.48/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.28
-9% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
391 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 76%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
20.2 Crosses 16.9
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vissel Kobe
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Gamba Osaka
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.49 xG 0.61
49% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
288 Passes 314
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
25 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
23.11.2024 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-1 HT 0-0 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe JPK
17.08.2024 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 2-2 HT 1-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
22.06.2024 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-1 HT 0-0 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe JAP
03.12.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-1 HT 0-0 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe JAP
04.03.2023 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 4-0 HT 1-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
18.09.2022 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 2-1 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vissel Kobe
3-2
AWAY Gamba Osaka
2.11 xG 0.57
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 1
336 Passes 287
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
42 Box Touches 19
29 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Vissel Kobe vs Gamba Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vissel Kobe edged past Gamba Osaka 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Vissel Kobe as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vissel Kobe had 55% of the ball to Gamba Osaka's 45%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 2.11 to 0.57 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Vissel Kobe's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vissel Kobe had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Vissel Kobe and 0.83 for Gamba Osaka.

What was the final score of Vissel Kobe vs Gamba Osaka?

Vissel Kobe 3-2 Gamba Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vissel Kobe vs Gamba Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vissel Kobe win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Vissel Kobe 44%, draw 27%, Gamba Osaka 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vissel Kobe) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vissel Kobe) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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