Diosgyor 2-1 MTK Budapest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
38%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
Over 2.5
53%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.46
No
48%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.04
2-3 Goals
44%
1.95
4-5 Goals
22%
2.61
6+ Goals
11%
6.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
+0.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.7pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-2.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
64%
-12.1pp
48%
BTTS No
36%
+12.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Diosgyor EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY MTK Budapest EU Bookmakers 45%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -11%
1.51/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.80
-5% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / -36%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
308 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 73%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
23.6 Crosses 20.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Diosgyor
0W-2D-4L
AWAY MTK Budapest
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.12 xG 1.32
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
411 Passes 321
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
29 Box Touches 22
26 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
21.02.2025 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 4-0 HT 2-0 Diosgyor Diosgyor MAC
19.10.2024 Diosgyor Diosgyor 0-2 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
14.04.2024 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 1-1 HT 1-0 Diosgyor Diosgyor MAC
16.12.2023 Diosgyor Diosgyor 3-3 HT 1-1 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
02.09.2023 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 2-1 HT 1-0 Diosgyor Diosgyor MAC
13.03.2023 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 4-2 HT 2-0 Diosgyor Diosgyor MAC2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Diosgyor
2-1
AWAY MTK Budapest
2.07 xG 1.40
40% Ball Possession 60%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 4
260 Passes 447
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
39 Box Touches 21
36 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Diosgyor vs MTK Budapest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Diosgyor squeezed past MTK Budapest 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 38%) promised a tight game; Diosgyor found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Diosgyor had 40% of the ball to MTK Budapest's 60%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 2.07 to 1.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, MTK Budapest led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Diosgyor and 2.67 for MTK Budapest.

What was the final score of Diosgyor vs MTK Budapest?

Diosgyor 2-1 MTK Budapest in the Hungary - NB I on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Diosgyor vs MTK Budapest?

Before kick-off our model rated an MTK Budapest win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Diosgyor 36%, draw 26%, MTK Budapest 38%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (MTK Budapest) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (MTK Budapest) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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