Pogon Szczecin 3-3 Lechia Gdansk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.49
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.18
Over 2.5
56%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.13
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
27%
2.87
6+ Goals
11%
8.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.82
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
16.25
X/1
23%
4.07
X/2
7%
12.7
X/X
8%
6.49
2/1
6%
21.1
2/2
8%
10.15
2/X
6%
18.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
63%
-5.2pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.5pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
42%
+1.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
58%
-1.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.2pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 19%
+7% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
2.08/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.97
+26% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
382 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 75%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
23.7 Crosses 14.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
2.13 xG 1.14
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
351 Passes 318
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
29 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.11.2024 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-3 HT 0-2 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
15.04.2023 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
01.10.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-1 HT 2-1 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
14.05.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
27.11.2021 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 5-1 HT 2-1 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
19.03.2021 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-0 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
3-3
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
1.09 xG 1.11
43% Ball Possession 57%
18 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
282 Passes 402
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 30
16 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 2-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Pogon Szczecin at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 43% of the ball to Lechia Gdansk's 57%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 1.09 to 1.11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.33 for Lechia Gdansk.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?

Pogon Szczecin 3-3 Lechia Gdansk in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 58%, draw 21%, Lechia Gdansk 22%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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