Korona Kielce 1-1 Rakow Czestochowa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 17 May 2025

Korona Kielce
1-1 HT 1-0
Rakow Czestochowa
📅17/05/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Korona Kielce vs Rakow Czestochowa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
5.4
Draw
29%
4.08
Away
46%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.34
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.29
6+ Goals
9%
12.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 30% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
19%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
15%
+10.2pp
29%
Draw
21%
+8.2pp
45%
Away Win
64%
-18.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.6pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Korona Kielce v Rakow Czestochowa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 69%
-10% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -17%
1.27/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/0.90
-21% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +83%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
233 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 80%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.0
17.4 Crosses 23.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9

Korona Kielce vs Rakow Czestochowa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Korona Kielce
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.66 xG 1.45
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
264 Passes 327
67% Pass Accuracy 78%
11 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.11.2024 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 1-1 HT 1-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
13.03.2024 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-2 HT 0-2 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
17.12.2023 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 1-0 HT 0-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
07.05.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-0 HT 1-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
22.10.2022 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 1-0 HT 0-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
23.06.2020 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-1 HT 0-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL

Korona Kielce 1-1 Rakow Czestochowa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Korona Kielce
1-1
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa
0.49 xG 1.68
29% Ball Possession 71%
6 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 12
129 Passes 436
60% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 49
7 Crosses 42
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Korona Kielce vs Rakow Czestochowa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Korona Kielce and Rakow Czestochowa couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Rakow Czestochowa at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Korona Kielce had 29% of the ball to Rakow Czestochowa's 71%, shots finished 6-17, expected goals 0.49 to 1.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rakow Czestochowa led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Korona Kielce and 1.00 for Rakow Czestochowa.

What was the final score of Korona Kielce vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Korona Kielce 1-1 Rakow Czestochowa in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Korona Kielce vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rakow Czestochowa win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Korona Kielce 25%, draw 29%, Rakow Czestochowa 45%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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