River Plate 1-0 Rosario Central — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.09
Draw
31%
2.88
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.45
Over 2.5
39%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.19
No
54%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.05
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
5.71
6+ Goals
7%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
3.08
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
8%
14.2
X/1
10%
4.5
X/2
9%
6.99
X/X
19%
3.42
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
11%
6.05
2/X
4%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-0.3pp
31%
Draw
31%
+0.2pp
25%
Away Win
25%
+0.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
65%
-3.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
35%
+3.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
+4.5pp
54%
BTTS No
58%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME River Plate EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Rosario Central EU Bookmakers 29%
-6% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +22%
1.26/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.18
-8% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
260 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 75%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
19.4 Crosses 18.2
4.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME River Plate
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Rosario Central
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.69 xG 0.81
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
422 Passes 190
83% Pass Accuracy 69%
27 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.02.2026 Rosario Central Rosario Central 0-0 HT 0-0 River Plate River Plate ARJ
06.10.2025 Rosario Central Rosario Central 2-1 HT 1-1 River Plate River Plate ARJ
30.03.2025 River Plate River Plate 2-2 HT 1-1 Rosario Central Rosario Central ARJ
09.12.2024 River Plate River Plate 4-0 HT 1-0 Rosario Central Rosario Central ARJ
08.04.2024 River Plate River Plate 2-1 HT 0-1 Rosario Central Rosario Central ARJ
23.12.2023 River Plate River Plate 2-0 HT 1-0 Rosario Central Rosario Central ARJTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME River Plate
1-0
AWAY Rosario Central
2.10 xG 0.35
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 1
277 Passes 235
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
12 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH River Plate vs Rosario Central
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

River Plate squeezed past Rosario Central 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had River Plate as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, River Plate had 54% of the ball to Rosario Central's 46%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 2.10 to 0.35 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold River Plate's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, River Plate had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for River Plate and 0.83 for Rosario Central.

What was the final score of River Plate vs Rosario Central?

River Plate 1-0 Rosario Central in the Argentina - Premier League on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for River Plate vs Rosario Central?

Before kick-off our model rated a River Plate win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split River Plate 43%, draw 31%, Rosario Central 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (River Plate), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (River Plate) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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