Gremio 1-2 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 Jun 2024

📅17/06/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.17
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
36%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.64
Over 2.5
43%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.68
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.37
6+ Goals
8%
22.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 34% vs market 31.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
19%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
28%
+7.1pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.4pp
36%
Away Win
43%
-7.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
57%
-0.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
43%
+0.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.4pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 48%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / +0%
0.77/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.12
-4% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -13%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
267 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 81%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.1
13.5 Crosses 24.3
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Botafogo
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.09 xG 1.23
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
393 Passes 364
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 16
12 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
10.11.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 3-4 HT 2-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
10.07.2023 Gremio Gremio 0-2 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
09.02.2021 Botafogo Botafogo 2-5 HT 0-2 Gremio Gremio BR1
15.10.2020 Gremio Gremio 3-1 HT 1-1 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
27.10.2019 Gremio Gremio 3-0 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
13.06.2019 Botafogo Botafogo 0-1 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
1-2
AWAY Botafogo
1.03 xG 0.70
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
323 Passes 425
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Botafogo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo nicked a narrow win over Gremio 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 29% / 36% — and on the day Botafogo made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gremio had 45% of the ball to Botafogo's 55%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.03 to 0.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gremio had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Gremio and 1.33 for Botafogo.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Botafogo?

Gremio 1-2 Botafogo in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Gremio 35%, draw 29%, Botafogo 36%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Botafogo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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