Criciuma 2-2 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 Jun 2024

📅17/06/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.17
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.76
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.23
6+ Goals
9%
20.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.76 — our 33% vs market 30.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
16%
X/2
22%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
28%
+3.5pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.9pp
42%
Away Win
43%
-1.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.7pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Criciuma EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 48%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.54/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.87/1.90
+37% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -49%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
284 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.3
Crosses 25.2
Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Criciuma
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Bahia
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.88 xG 1.03
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
343 Passes 376
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
24.05.2024 Criciuma Criciuma 0-2 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BRK
01.05.2024 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BRK
09.09.2022 Criciuma Criciuma 0-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR2
04.06.2022 Bahia Bahia 2-1 HT 0-1 Criciuma Criciuma BR2
01.10.2016 Bahia Bahia 2-0 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR2
15.06.2016 Criciuma Criciuma 3-2 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Criciuma
2-2
AWAY Bahia
1.92 xG 0.78
32% Ball Possession 68%
17 Total Shots 22
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
146 Passes 439
64% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Criciuma vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Criciuma and Bahia couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Bahia at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Criciuma had 32% of the ball to Bahia's 68%, shots finished 17-22, expected goals 1.92 to 0.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Criciuma and 1.50 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Criciuma vs Bahia?

Criciuma 2-2 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Criciuma vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Criciuma 31%, draw 27%, Bahia 42%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bahia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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