Bahia 1-0 Criciuma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 1 May 2024

Bahia
1-0 HT 0-0
Criciuma
📅01/05/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Brazil - Cup – 2024

Bahia vs Criciuma Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.53
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
26%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.68
Over 2.5
48%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.16
No
53%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.76
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
4.23
6+ Goals
9%
20.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.18
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.6
X/1
14%
3.64
X/2
12%
9.95
X/X
11%
4.52
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
8%
8.7
2/X
8%
17.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
61%
-13.8pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.1pp
26%
Away Win
16%
+10.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.2pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Criciuma — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Criciuma EU Bookmakers 19%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
2.42/0.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.70
+39% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -10%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
380 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 76%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
25.0 Crosses –
1.8 Yellow Cards 4.6

Bahia vs Criciuma Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Criciuma
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.50 xG 1.19
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
296 Passes 348
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.09.2022 Criciuma Criciuma 0-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR2
04.06.2022 Bahia Bahia 2-1 HT 0-1 Criciuma Criciuma BR2
01.10.2016 Bahia Bahia 2-0 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR2
15.06.2016 Criciuma Criciuma 3-2 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR2
21.10.2015 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR2
18.07.2015 Criciuma Criciuma 2-1 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR2

Bahia 1-0 Criciuma — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
1-0
AWAY Criciuma
2.11 xG 0.14
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 0
8 Corners 1
536 Passes 325
90% Pass Accuracy 80%
31 Box Touches 6
26 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Criciuma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia edged past Criciuma 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bahia as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Bahia had 60% of the ball to Criciuma's 40%, shots finished 17-4, expected goals 2.11 to 0.14 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bahia's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Bahia and 1.00 for Criciuma.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Criciuma?

Bahia 1-0 Criciuma in the Brazil - Cup on 01/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Criciuma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Bahia 47%, draw 27%, Criciuma 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bahia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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