Atletico Mineiro 2-0 Sport Recife — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 1 May 2024

📅01/05/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
17%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.19
No
52%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.06
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.82
6+ Goals
13%
16.55
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.82 — our 25% vs market 20.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
24%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
66%
-7.6pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.4pp
17%
Away Win
12%
+5.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
42%
+6.3pp
52%
BTTS No
58%
-6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 15%
+6% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +25% / +25%
2.12/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/0.96
+28% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +69%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
428 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 77%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.9
19.3 Crosses 20.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Sport Recife
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.10 xG 0.59
62% Ball Possession 38%
20 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
500 Passes 280
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.09.2021 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 3-0 HT 2-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
07.06.2021 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
21.02.2021 Sport Recife Sport Recife 2-3 HT 1-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
25.10.2020 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
30.09.2018 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 5-2 HT 4-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
31.05.2018 Sport Recife Sport Recife 3-2 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
2-0
AWAY Sport Recife
2.99 xG 0.39
65% Ball Possession 35%
17 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
448 Passes 210
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
32 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs Sport Recife
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro got the better of Sport Recife 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atletico Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 65% of the ball to Sport Recife's 35%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 2.99 to 0.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Mineiro had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 1.17 for Sport Recife.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Sport Recife?

Atletico Mineiro 2-0 Sport Recife in the Brazil - Cup on 01/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Sport Recife?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 59%, draw 24%, Sport Recife 17%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Mineiro), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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