Super Nova 1-3 Liepaja — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 17 Jun 2025

📅17/06/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
42%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.75
No
43%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
23%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
34%
-3.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
42%
Away Win
40%
+2.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
53%
+4.1pp
43%
BTTS No
47%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Super Nova EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Liepaja EU Bookmakers 45%
+38% / +38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -13%
1.50/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.04
+60% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -10%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
142 · 57% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 65%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.7
20.3 Crosses 23.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Super Nova
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Liepaja
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
0.99 xG 2.07
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
273 Passes 295
73% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 29
18 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
25.04.2025 Liepaja Liepaja 2-2 HT 2-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
11.11.2023 Liepaja Liepaja 2-0 HT 1-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
28.08.2023 Super Nova Super Nova 0-2 HT 0-2 Liepaja Liepaja LET
09.06.2023 Liepaja Liepaja 2-1 HT 2-1 Super Nova Super Nova LET
28.04.2023 Super Nova Super Nova 2-6 HT 1-1 Liepaja Liepaja LET
11.09.2022 Super Nova Super Nova 2-2 HT 1-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Super Nova
1-3
AWAY Liepaja
1.10 xG 4.06
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 23
5 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 6
269 Passes 338
74% Pass Accuracy 87%
26 Box Touches 40
32 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Super Nova vs Liepaja
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liepaja saw off Super Nova 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

As we said in the preview, our model had Liepaja as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Super Nova had 49% of the ball to Liepaja's 51%, shots finished 10-23, expected goals 1.10 to 4.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liepaja led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Super Nova and 2.67 for Liepaja.

What was the final score of Super Nova vs Liepaja?

Super Nova 1-3 Liepaja in the Latvia - Virsliga on 17/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Super Nova vs Liepaja?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liepaja win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Super Nova 30%, draw 28%, Liepaja 42%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liepaja), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Liepaja) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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