Gwangju 3-2 Seongnam — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 17 Jul 2024

📅17/07/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.61
2-3 Goals
44%
1.81
4-5 Goals
19%
3.34
6+ Goals
9%
12.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.61 — our 28% vs market 22.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.26
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.15
X/1
18%
4.1
X/2
10%
9.13
X/X
9%
5.11
2/1
10%
23.15
2/2
13%
6.91
2/X
9%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-8.3pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.6pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+7.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.9pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gwangju EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Seongnam EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -11%
0.99/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.23
-14% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
381 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
24.0 Crosses 14.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gwangju
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Seongnam
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.37 xG 1.17
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
348 Passes 308
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.11.2021 Seongnam Seongnam 1-0 HT 1-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
24.08.2021 Gwangju Gwangju 2-0 HT 1-0 Seongnam Seongnam GKOK
01.08.2021 Gwangju Gwangju 0-0 HT 0-0 Seongnam Seongnam GKOK
10.04.2021 Seongnam Seongnam 2-0 HT 1-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
20.09.2020 Seongnam Seongnam 0-2 HT 0-1 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
09.05.2020 Gwangju Gwangju 0-2 HT 0-2 Seongnam Seongnam GKOK
POST-MATCH Gwangju vs Seongnam
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gwangju edged past Seongnam 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gwangju as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Seongnam led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Gwangju and 0.83 for Seongnam.

What was the final score of Gwangju vs Seongnam?

Gwangju 3-2 Seongnam in the South Kore - K League Classic on 17/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gwangju vs Seongnam?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gwangju win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Gwangju 45%, draw 26%, Seongnam 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gwangju) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gwangju) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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