Erzgebirge Aue 1-1 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 17 Jul 2024

📅17/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.87
Draw
28%
4.49
Away
45%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
Over 2.5
64%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.24
No
38%
3.59
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
15.2
2-3 Goals EV+ ✓
41%
3.13
4-5 Goals
30%
2.3
6+ Goals
14%
2.55
Value flag · 2-3 Goals at 3.13 — our 41% vs market 26.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
17%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
23%
+3.9pp
28%
Draw
19%
+9.1pp
45%
Away Win
58%
-12.9pp
62%
BTTS Yes
76%
-14.0pp
38%
BTTS No
24%
+14.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 62%
-34% / -34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
0.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.76/1.15
-100% / +61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +92% / -1%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
342 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 422 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.6
Crosses 14.1
Yellow Cards 0.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
1-1
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
0.38 xG 0.61
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
350 Passes 436
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
8 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzgebirge Aue and Borussia Dortmund couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Borussia Dortmund at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (62%) landed while over 2.5 goals (64%) missed.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 45% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 55%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 0.38 to 0.61.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Borussia Dortmund?

Erzgebirge Aue 1-1 Borussia Dortmund in the Friendlies on 17/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 26%, draw 28%, Borussia Dortmund 45%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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