Meizhou Hakka 2-1 Changchun YaTai — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒14:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
30%
3.64
Away
26%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.29
Over 2.5
50%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.5
No
56%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.77
2-3 Goals
37%
1.92
4-5 Goals
23%
2.82
6+ Goals
11%
7.76
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.77 — our 29% vs market 16.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.76
1/2
4%
29.5
1/X
4%
12.85
X/1
20%
4.94
X/2
7%
7.02
X/X EV+ ✗
20%
5.62
2/1
8%
22.3
2/2
14%
4.49
2/X
6%
13.1
Value flag · X/X at 5.62 — our 20% vs market 13.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.0pp
30%
Draw
24%
+6.1pp
26%
Away Win
30%
-4.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
40%
+10.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
60%
-10.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
62%
-18.2pp
56%
BTTS No
38%
+18.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Meizhou Hakka EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Changchun YaTai EU Bookmakers 33%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.24/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.55/0.34
-7% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
329 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 80%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
22.1 Crosses 11.0
4.5 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Meizhou Hakka
4W-0D-1L
AWAY Changchun YaTai
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.00 xG 1.07
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
284 Passes 322
73% Pass Accuracy 76%
27 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.04.2024 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 0-1 HT 0-0 Meizhou Hakka Meizhou Hakka ÇİN
08.08.2023 Meizhou Hakka Meizhou Hakka 4-2 HT 2-1 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
10.05.2023 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 2-4 HT 2-1 Meizhou Hakka Meizhou Hakka ÇİN
23.12.2022 Meizhou Hakka Meizhou Hakka 1-0 HT 1-0 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
29.10.2022 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 1-0 HT 1-0 Meizhou Hakka Meizhou Hakka ÇİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Meizhou Hakka
2-1
AWAY Changchun YaTai
2.47 xG 0.45
37% Ball Possession 63%
15 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 6
187 Passes 347
71% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Meizhou Hakka vs Changchun YaTai
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Meizhou Hakka edged past Changchun YaTai 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Meizhou Hakka as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Meizhou Hakka had 37% of the ball to Changchun YaTai's 63%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 2.47 to 0.45 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Meizhou Hakka's control.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Meizhou Hakka had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Meizhou Hakka and 1.00 for Changchun YaTai.

What was the final score of Meizhou Hakka vs Changchun YaTai?

Meizhou Hakka 2-1 Changchun YaTai in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Meizhou Hakka vs Changchun YaTai?

Before kick-off our model rated a Meizhou Hakka win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Meizhou Hakka 44%, draw 30%, Changchun YaTai 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Meizhou Hakka) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Meizhou Hakka) ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ÇİNSL More China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League
17 Aug 2024
14:00 Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen FC Analysis →
15:00 Shandong Taishan vs Chengdu Qianbao Analysis →