Parma 1-1 Fiorentina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.08
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
46%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.9
Over 2.5
54%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.37
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.52
6+ Goals
12%
13.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.52 — our 26% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.07
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
25.5
1/X
11%
12.8
X/1
13%
7.11
X/2
19%
4.81
X/X
6%
4.46
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.9
2/X
6%
12.45
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 9% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
29%
+1.9pp
23%
Draw
28%
-4.8pp
46%
Away Win
43%
+3.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
49%
-3.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
51%
+3.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.5pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parma EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 48%
+2% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
1.47/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.21
+3% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -12%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
273 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 414 · 84%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
19.1 Crosses 19.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parma
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Fiorentina
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.32 xG 1.68
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
333 Passes 467
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.12.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-2 HT 0-2 Parma Parma İTK
20.07.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-1 Parma Parma HAZ
07.03.2021 Fiorentina Fiorentina 3-3 HT 2-1 Parma Parma İTA
07.11.2020 Parma Parma 0-0 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
05.07.2020 Parma Parma 1-2 HT 0-2 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
03.11.2019 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-1 HT 0-1 Parma Parma İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parma
1-1
AWAY Fiorentina
1.82 xG 0.75
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 9
199 Passes 353
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 19
11 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Parma vs Fiorentina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parma and Fiorentina couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Fiorentina at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Parma had 39% of the ball to Fiorentina's 61%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 1.82 to 0.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fiorentina led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Parma and 1.50 for Fiorentina.

What was the final score of Parma vs Fiorentina?

Parma 1-1 Fiorentina in the Italy - Serie A on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parma vs Fiorentina?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Parma 31%, draw 23%, Fiorentina 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fiorentina), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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