Milan 2-2 Torino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 17 Aug 2024

Milan
2-2 HT 0-1
Torino
📅17/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Milan vs Torino Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.0
Over 2.5
56%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.77
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
3.23
6+ Goals
11%
11.2
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.23 — our 27% vs market 25.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.9
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.6
X/1
15%
3.7
X/2
9%
11.65
X/X
9%
5.79
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.3
2/2
8%
9.18
2/X
8%
17.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 10% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
61%
-5.9pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.3pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
46%
-1.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
54%
+1.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.4pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Milan v Torino — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Torino EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.79/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.51
+3% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
402 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
20.6 Crosses 15.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5

Milan vs Torino Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Torino
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.63 xG 0.80
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
390 Passes 288
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
18.05.2024 Torino Torino 3-1 HT 2-0 Milan Milan İTA
26.08.2023 Milan Milan 4-1 HT 3-1 Torino Torino İTA
10.02.2023 Milan Milan 1-0 HT 0-0 Torino Torino İTA
11.01.2023 Milan Milan 0-1 HT 0-0 Torino Torino İTK
30.10.2022 Torino Torino 2-1 HT 2-0 Milan Milan İTA
10.04.2022 Torino Torino 0-0 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA

Milan 2-2 Torino — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
2-2
AWAY Torino
2.13 xG 0.99
56% Ball Possession 44%
26 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 2
453 Passes 358
92% Pass Accuracy 87%
41 Box Touches 8
39 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Milan vs Torino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan and Torino couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Milan carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Milan had 56% of the ball to Torino's 44%, shots finished 26-7, expected goals 2.13 to 0.99.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Torino led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Milan and 1.17 for Torino.

What was the final score of Milan vs Torino?

Milan 2-2 Torino in the Italy - Serie A on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Torino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Milan 55%, draw 23%, Torino 22%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Milan) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Milan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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