Salernitana 2-1 Cittadella — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.78
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.2
6+ Goals
10%
20.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 31% vs market 30.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.25
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1
14%
4.75
X/2
12%
6.14
X/X
13%
4.2
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
18%
4.66
2/X
8%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-4.6pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.3pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+4.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.3pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salernitana EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Cittadella EU Bookmakers 34%
+7% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -1%
1.36/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.16
+24% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +19%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
275 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 75%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
20.2 Crosses 24.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salernitana
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Cittadella
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.14 xG 1.41
44% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
214 Passes 306
67% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.03.2021 Cittadella Cittadella 0-0 HT 0-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTB
05.12.2020 Salernitana Salernitana 1-0 HT 0-0 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
13.07.2020 Salernitana Salernitana 4-1 HT 2-1 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
07.12.2019 Cittadella Cittadella 4-3 HT 3-1 Salernitana Salernitana İTB
13.04.2019 Salernitana Salernitana 4-2 HT 1-2 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
01.12.2018 Cittadella Cittadella 3-1 HT 1-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salernitana
2-1
AWAY Cittadella
1.29 xG 0.49
70% Ball Possession 30%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 1
448 Passes 160
85% Pass Accuracy 69%
27 Box Touches 9
24 Crosses 5
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Salernitana vs Cittadella
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Salernitana squeezed past Cittadella 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Salernitana made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Salernitana had 70% of the ball to Cittadella's 30%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.29 to 0.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Salernitana had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Salernitana and 1.67 for Cittadella.

What was the final score of Salernitana vs Cittadella?

Salernitana 2-1 Cittadella in the Italy - Serie B on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salernitana vs Cittadella?

Before kick-off our model rated a Salernitana win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Salernitana 37%, draw 28%, Cittadella 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Salernitana) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Salernitana) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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