Sumqayıt 2-1 Sebail FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.72
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.67
Over 2.5
49%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.06
No
50%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
23%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-7.6pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.0pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
56%
-4.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
44%
+4.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.7pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sumqayıt EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Sebail FK EU Bookmakers 23%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.71/0.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.82
-1% / +129% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -25%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
320 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sumqayıt
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Sebail FK
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
59% Ball Possession 41%
7 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
12.05.2024 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 2-1 HT 2-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
08.03.2024 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-1 HT 0-1 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
23.12.2023 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 1-0 HT 0-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
05.08.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 1-4 HT 0-1 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
07.05.2023 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 1-3 HT 1-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
04.03.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-1 HT 0-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
POST-MATCH Sumqayıt vs Sebail FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sumqayıt edged past Sebail FK 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sumqayıt as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sumqayıt had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sumqayıt and 0.83 for Sebail FK.

What was the final score of Sumqayıt vs Sebail FK?

Sumqayıt 2-1 Sebail FK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sumqayıt vs Sebail FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sumqayıt win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sumqayıt 47%, draw 28%, Sebail FK 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sumqayıt) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sumqayıt) ✗ Under 2.5
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17 Aug 2024
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