Brest 1-5 Marsilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
39%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.92
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.0
6+ Goals
8%
18.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 30% vs market 28.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.49
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
9%
13.15
X/1
10%
6.17
X/2
9%
5.0
X/X
12%
4.17
2/1
12%
34.5
2/2
22%
3.34
2/X
7%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.2pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.7pp
39%
Away Win
39%
-0.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.3pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brest EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsilya EU Bookmakers 43%
+10% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.45/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.23
+15% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -7%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
335 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 421 · 83%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
23.1 Crosses 16.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brest
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Marsilya
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.37 xG 1.50
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
307 Passes 460
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.02.2024 Brest Brest 1-0 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
26.08.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 2-0 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
27.05.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 1-2 HT 0-0 Brest Brest FR1
14.08.2022 Brest Brest 1-1 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
13.03.2022 Brest Brest 1-4 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
04.12.2021 Marsilya Marsilya 1-2 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brest
1-5
AWAY Marsilya
1.32 xG 2.38
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 0
423 Passes 446
86% Pass Accuracy 87%
17 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 1
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brest vs Marsilya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya cruised past Brest 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 28% / 39% — and on the day Marsilya made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Brest had 50% of the ball to Marsilya's 50%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 1.32 to 2.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brest had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Brest and 1.50 for Marsilya.

What was the final score of Brest vs Marsilya?

Brest 1-5 Marsilya in the France - Ligue 1 on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brest vs Marsilya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Brest 33%, draw 28%, Marsilya 39%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marsilya) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Marsilya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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